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Product details
File Size: 891 KB
Print Length: 305 pages
Publisher: Affirm Press (March 12, 2019)
Publication Date: March 12, 2019
Sold by: Hachette Book Group
Language: English
ASIN: B07P6QGQV9
Text-to-Speech:
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Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
#289,412 Paid in Kindle Store (See Top 100 Paid in Kindle Store)
Climate and energy policy have been central to Australian politics for well over a decade. The major parties have again offered ‘product differentiation’ at this year’s election on the targets to be achieved.The Coalition reluctantly accepts the Paris Agreement commitments it signed up to: a 26-28 per cent reduction in emissions on 2005 levels by 2030. Labor has committed to a 45 per cent reduction in emissions and 50 per cent renewable electricity by 2030.Politicians are championing a range of pet projects, from Snowy 2.0 to new interconnectors, power stations, renewables and batteries. Electricity is often on the front page of our newspapers.Matthew Warren, like many energy and electricity system experts, is frustrated by the politicisation of electricity in Australia. For 15 years he has been an insider professional, including at the Clean Energy Council, the Electricity Supply Association and the Australian Energy Council.His book Blackout tells “the story of the electricity crisis in Australia.†It combines political history with an exposition of how our electricity system actually works, the strengths and weaknesses of current and prospective technologies, and the prospects from here.There can be no doubt that a system built on large-scale coal-fired power stations is lurching in new directions. Subsidies and consumer enthusiasm have driven a rapid uptake of rooftop solar PV. A quarter of Australian houses now have them, in some cases destabilising street voltages. The Renewable Energy Target has driven significant deployments of wind generation in the small and relatively isolated South Australian grid, undermining the business model for its base-load power stations. Coal-fired stations have closed, reducing reserve capacity at times of peak need.Is it a crisis?The state-wide ‘system black’ in South Australia in 2016 was, according to Warren, “an inexperience blackout,†because “the grid was being run on old rules for a new system.†But the blackout of 200,000 homes in Melbourne on 25 January 2019 “happened because there wasn’t enough generation.†He looks past the “faults that are to be expected when running big generators hard in high temperatures†because there are supposed to be sufficient reserves, concluding that “it was a policy failure blackout.â€â€œThe most recent summer of blackouts and blackout warningsâ€, says Warren, “is the new normal.â€He despairs at the level of intervention now being driven by politicians and their various pet projects and policies. This reduces our National Electricity Market to a dispatcher of electricity, eliminating its role as a real market that signals where, when and what kind of investment is required. It turns electricity infrastructure investment into a political lobbying exercise.Warren most clearly illustrates the difference between expert and politician led electricity development with two case studies. Renewables were integrated into King Island’s diesel generator based system by Hydro Tasmania. The experience gained allowed Hydro Tasmania to roll out “a shipping-container modular system to other remote grids†and position itself as a world-leader in renewable micro-grids.The contrasting study is Alice Springs, which introduced renewables under the Federal Government’s Solar Cities program. Plagued by blackouts, interventions included new gas and diesel generators.“King Islandâ€, says Warren, “has a renewables micro-grid designed by engineers. Alice Springs has a renewables micro-grid designed by press release. It is an important difference.â€This serves as a warning for the haphazard approach we are taking to the much larger National Electricity Market. Warren warns that unless the market is fixed quickly, governments will be forced to divert perhaps $100 billion or more that should be spent elsewhere into building power stations, killing the market for good. Australia, he says, “is currently well advanced on the road to that catastrophic policy fail.â€Warren thinks that politicians should stick to setting rules in the National Electricity Market, and targets for emissions reduction, and then let engineers, businesses and investors get on with making the system work.But he is not optimistic. His assessment is that “the grid is in a slow-moving crisis.†Uncertainty has stalled new investment in generation and our ageing fleet of coal-fired generators are “shuffling towards their use by date, and we have no plan for replacing them.†He sees reserve margins getting tighter each summer and “policy-induced blackouts†as federal and state governments bicker about their rival interventions, with the grid “slowly degrading†behind “this pantomime.â€Warren counsels that “electricity is not a cause or political ideology. It is a machine.†He has three steps to resetting the machine. We need to admit we have an electricity problem; we need a credible plan; and we need the right political and commercial conditions for investment.Above all, he exhorts, governments must “stop trying to design and then build the grid themselves.â€Warren says the National Energy Guarantee “could be the centrepiece of a suite of reforms needed to guide new investment in generation,†but it’s not sufficient.The contemporary media environment demands a “visible, public-facing entity, chaired by a Reserve Bank Governor type figure, whose primary job is to constantly and sagely inform and reassure Australians that the electricity reform is being managed successfully by experts, while being able to respond quickly to political and technical debates.†He sees the Chair of the Energy Security Board taking on this role, with the Board’s role expanding from oversight of the implementation of the Finkel Review. A reformed Board could “coordinate the technical horsepower of the electricity A-team and use it to fill this critical role as the go-to agency for comment on electricity issues.â€Given the important role Warren sees for gas-fired peaking plants in complementing renewables, the book is light on about the problems of gas supply security and price in south-eastern Australia and its implications for electricity.Despite this, Warren’s Blackout is a timely contribution that can be expected to improve the electricity policy, system and technical literacy of anyone who commits the modest time it takes to read it. It is especially relevant for our political and media class.It could also be considered Warren’s case to be appointed to chair a reformed Energy Security Board.With Labor expected to win this year’s election, a degree of policy stability could be possible. This would be built around the architecture of National Energy Guarantee and the targets for 50 per cent renewables and 45 per cent emissions reductions by 2030. That means many of our existing coal-fired power stations will close in the next decade. The new government will have no time to waste getting the policy framework in place to support the investment and building that is going to have to take place: non-hydro renewables are only 12 per cent of current generation.Labor will need to resist an array of lobbying on pet projects from various interests. Perhaps its best friends will be in the superannuation sector, which could properly assess business cases and mobilise the investment needed to build a renewables-dominant grid with dramatically lower emissions and avoid running out of electricity.
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